Obtain the data you need to make the most informed decisions by accessing our extensive portfolio of information, analytics, and expertise. "Heightened political risk globally raises the threshold for unrest, with implications for shipping, such as the ability to secure crews and access ports safely. Another short-term action is to invest in strategy, PR, and government-relations teams that can serve as the companys points of contact with senior government officials and key stakeholders in multiple jurisdictions. Providing a regular forum for a board to examine pressure points and operating realities from multiple perspectives and air diverging views doesnt just improve decision making and establish an organizations appetite for riskit helps create consensus across leadership on the issues of the day. Managing geopolitical risk. FS firms need to be agile and resilient to thrive. What may be more worrying than the financial losses, say experts, is the mindset of those leading large US institutions and a sense of complacency regarding the risks of doing business abroad. A major global technology company offers another good illustration. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has . Coco Feng, Chinese president Xi Jinping seeks to rally countrys scientists for unprecedented contest,. Stress in global financial markets is significant. International Trade, The benefits of using geopolitical intelligence services are numerous, but the most significant include staying ahead of the pack, improving business operations, and ensuring business continuity, and protecting staff while abroad. A quick message or email to the global functional marketing, finance, or risk community, the company told us, allows for rapid troubleshooting, the cross-pollination of insights, and the sharing of best practices. . All rights reserved. Please try again later! Advanced Country Analysis & Forecasting We study the dynamic effect of industry- and firm-specific geopolitical risk on firm-level investment. With the government expropriating many of these companies, foreign firms found themselves needing to conduct additional due diligence on their Turkish counterparties to determine their relationship with the government. Utilize our expert insight and data to get risk scores tailored to your specific metrics, Benchmarking, Pricing and Aggregation, and Scenario Analysis As geopolitical events can influence market conditions in industrialized countries just as much as they can impact developing countries, assessing and understanding them through the conduct of an effective geopolitical risk assessment will help mitigate risk exposure. Site by Odgis+Co and ICVM Group. Industries that are positively exposed to geopolitical risks suffer a decline in investment that is larger than the aggregate effect. Cyber risks are believed to have the deepest impact on supply chains rated by 34% as a high impact and 54% as medium. All rights reserved. Boston Consulting Group is an Equal Opportunity Employer. Something went wrong. Designed for pro-active corporate security teams with granular forecasts and location specific risk analysis for 211 geographies. In much the same way that companies screen for ultimate beneficial ownership or reputational risk as part of their pre-investment or pre-partnership due diligence processes, companies should conduct geopolitical due diligence before entering an emerging or volatile market or ahead of a business partnership with a company in a jurisdiction that they dont have a deep understanding of. Eurasia Group 2023. Geopolitics, corporate governance and ESG. Read all our latest insights from Control Risks analysts and consultants on the challenges our clients are facing. 11 Jan 2023 CEO agenda Six ways asset managers can prepare for an uncertain future 2 Feb 2023 Wealth and asset management One short-term action that a company can take is establishing a crisis-response unit to take the lead on identifying potential risks and developing mitigation strategies. Some may, for commercial and strategic reasons, choose to strengthen ties to the countries where the companies are based. . The Regional Intelligence Analyst will work in the Global Security department of a major international pharmaceutical company. Our policy and political risk consulting team helps business leaders to anticipate, analyze and navigate the challenges arising from political developments. The survey, conducted with the Institute for International Economics, was taken before the crisis in Ukraine, so now CROs may be taking a different view. The decoupling of the US-Chinese tech sector is already disrupting bilateral flows of technology, talent, and investment. Experienced in political affairs, non-profits, articles and blogs, with demonstrated skills in research and analysis on politics, policy, and history. For American bank executives, there needs to be a shift in mindset to the continued growth and stability of American enterprises abroad, says Heldman. Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, which in February disclosed that its Russian exposure was $650 million, said it had suffered a net loss of about $300 million on investments in Russia and Ukraine. Whether the billions of dollars in losses linked to Russias invasion of Ukraine and subsequent Western sanctions have prompted big banks to increase their geopolitical expertise remains unclear. Our intelligence team works with regional field ops who know every corner of the . But in the age of instant information, the story a company tells about itself in one market wont stay there. oil companies, airlines, tech firms ,etc.). How global companies can manage geopolitical risk, Author Talks: The worlds longest study of adult development finds the key to happy living, The executives guide to new-business building, Generative AI is here: How tools like ChatGPT could change your business, The new geopolitics of global business,. Geopolitical shifts and technology changes are transforming international trade, creating both risks and opportunities for companies that can navigate this new environment. 3 Commodity prices rose sharply 4 after Russia . Depending on the circumstance, a companys leaders may have to weigh the effect that political or media scrutiny on the companys operations in one area has on its holdings in other locales. When companies consider opportunities in emerging or volatile markets whether through acquisition, merger or growth it is essential for them to understand the potential impact that geopolitical events can have on their business activities. 1 Geopolitical risk assessments consist of identifying possible risks, assessing the likely impact of those risks and making recommendations to manage, mitigate and respond to them. Idiosyncratic geopolitical riskconstructed using the transcripts of firms' earnings calls, and [1] Geopolitical risk refers to situations involving power struggles such as wars, tensions or terrorist attacks that cannot be resolved peacefully. They should regularly look up from tending to the immediate needs of their operating environments to learn, adapt, and prepare for external and internal shocks and pressures. Geopolitical Risk – What Is It and How Can Companies Respond To It? The firm serves financial institutions, private equity . Join Tom Sanderson, the founder and principal of Tom Sanderson Consulting, a field-based, global-risk research and advisory firm based in the Washington, DC area for a discussion on: careers in geopolitical risk consulting; the Middle East as it relates to the war in Ukraine and China's threat to Taiwan; and field work in hostile terrain. Any investment in taxable fixed-income securities is subject to certain risks, including credit risk, interest-rate risk, foreign risk, and currency risk. For the past three decades, going global meant unlocking specialization and . Our privacy policy describes how your data will be processed. 4. We hosted our 6th annual Top 10 Geopolitical Risks event today with KPMG global alliance partner, Eurasia Group, and we highlighted the relevance of the risks China and the United States decoupling in the technology sphere is another political risk in 2020, considered by the Eurasia Group as "the most impactful . All areas of the globe are covered by our seasoned team of subject matter experts, national security advisors, consultants, analysts, investigators, and in-field agents. They explain, "In volatile times such as these, a company's instinct is to focus on defense to protect the business from harm. Theyre the equity investors that reap rich returns by snapping up stakes in undervaluedbut soundassets in the challenging emerging markets that others shun. Geopolitical risk, however, is unlike credit, liquidity, or counterparty default risk. Resource shortages likely to disrupt critical supply chains in South Africa, US Weekly Economic Commentary: Stubborn inflation clouds the outlook, Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodities down as energy crisis recedes, The global economy moves forward, averting recession, #China is set to cut its #crude throughputs in March from the recent highs in February as maintenance season starts https://t.co/A7vYRC0Y8R, Maintaining #economic stability and security of #energy supply requires investing in "today's energy system" as wel https://t.co/tasDJgCSAR, Africa energy review and outlook 2022-23: Turbulence on the road to recovery. The Position . Financial risks have probably never been more acute. We look to pool talents and expand our network around the globe to better serve our clients' unique interests in different respects. We evaluated their organizations approaches along three dimensions: the strategic role of geopolitical risk management within the company, the ways in which different parts of the organization are leveraged, and the use of risk management processes and tools. Kroll is not affiliated with Kroll Bond Rating Agency, Holistic-risk evaluators have the most highly developed geopolitical risk management operations. Comprehensive spectrum of risk-based screening and due diligence solutions. As one of the country's top political consulting firms, Global Strategy Group has worked with many diverse and high-profile clients to serve a range of unique needs. Such a test would include a time frame for execution and possible technical options. A holistic view uses four lenses: global geopolitical trends and scenarios, ongoing operations, investment decision making, and frequent monitoring of evolving events and development that can affect the business. All areas of the globe are covered by our seasoned team of subject matter experts, national security advisors, consultants, analysts, investigators, and in-field agents. Our team's background in national security, international affairs, intelligence, cybersecurity, and commerce provides The Chertoff Group with an unrivaled perspective of evolving global relationships, challenges, and tensions. 2. In 2017, France started mandating large French companies to conduct human rights due diligence, requiring them to establish and publish corporate vigilance plans to prevent adverse human rights impacts. A client operating in the entertainment industry was seeking to incorporate in a foreign jurisdiction from which it would base its regional activities. New York NY 10055. Read our @SPGCI report: https://t.co/3wDIVkZ5hW, For the first time since 2006, The Progressive Corp. recorded more personal lines net premiums written than GEICO C https://t.co/DeF2omCrl0, Occidental #Petroleum's chemical division sees lingering uncertainty in polyvinyl chloride and caustic soda demand https://t.co/9cqw2zMJPo, { Channeling the policy debates under way in the European Union, As a management consultant, Dr. Smith has worked for PA Consulting Group . Leverage unparalleled Equity investments are subject to market risk or the risk that stocks will decline in response to such factors as adverse company news or industry developments or a general economic decline. Theyre the industrial goods companies that shift production from one country to another because they correctly predict that rising protectionist sentiment in some key markets will lead to trade actions that will alter the economics of manufacturing. (2019). Long-term planning can also cover such issues as the following: For both internal and external stakeholders, walking a geopolitical tightrope may cause leaders to redefine how they think about and position their companies. Reporting focuses on both incident analysis and trend monitoring, providing forward looking assessments to facilitate proactive risk management decision making and asset . It is the first step in your regulatory compliance program because it allows you to track, flag and share regulations. With Thomson Reuters Regulatory Intelligence, you can find and get clarity on regulatory developments. Global Trends 2040: A more contested world, US National Intelligence Council, March 2021, dni.gov. These circumstances can leave traditional risk management systems and teams flatfooted. The organization saw a troubling trend in a number of key markets that could potentially threaten its growing cloud-storage business: mounting anxiety on the part of policymakers and customers, who were worried that local governments could access confidential data kept on servers in certain countries. After consulting with top business leaders and legal, public-policy, and risk professionals at Fortune 500 companies in multiple industries, we suggest that company leaders can use a five-pronged approach to managing geopolitical risk. Subscribed to {PRACTICE_NAME} email alerts. Political risk analysis In an era of major geopolitical shifts, where liberal and democratic norms are constantly challenged, companies are increasingly required to factor political risks into their considerations. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence (if different), and our use of cookies as described in our Cookie Policy. We are constantly searching for overlooked assets where we can navigate the risk, while others are unwilling or unable to, an executive of a private-equity firm with a decades-long record of success in emerging markets told us. Our methodology allows us to assess differences in operating models and the degree of process maturity relative to industry practices as well as to identify opportunities for improvement. We grouped companies into four general archetypes according to the extent to which they recognize and act on opportunities arising from geopolitical shiftsin addition to mitigating the downside risksand the intensity of focus and sophistication of processes with their organizations. MAX's Geopolitical Intelligence Services knows your part of the world because we're part of it too. 3 Governments can confiscate assets, nationalize property, breach contracts, impose embargos or prohibit trade with specific countries. The ability to proactively navigate turbulence can mean the difference between prospering through a crisis or falling victim. Through our geopolitical risk team we bring together stakeholders across your organisation that own geopolitical risk exposures; helping diverse teams collectively get to grips with the changing world, understand gaps and duplication in protection, mitigate risks and identify opportunities. Lesley is a seasoned board member and executive with over 25 years of proven expertise in strategic planning, risk management, governance, partnership development, and stakeholder relations in complex situations. The businesss board can apply a materiality test to pinpoint what it should dedicate time to discussing. Nowhere is the fallout from current geopolitical tensions more apparent than the unfolding competition between China and the United States. ), policy decisions (limits to foreign direct investment, tolerance of corrupt elites, etc.) Full-Time. With tectonic shifts in geopolitics rumbling from Chinas reemergence on the global stage, a climate crisis, and the Fourth Industrial Revolution, companies must be on guard. Eurasia Group's advisory and consulting business is built upon a research platform of leading political risk analysts and management consultants with deep country and sector expertise. Taking a bionic approach to digital transformation can lead to successful business outcomes. However, it added, only a subset of chief risk officers (CROs) recognize this.. Never miss an insight. The companies with the most disciplined approach, however, often use a combination of processes and tools to look at risks during different time frames and with different rates of periodic review. "autoplay":true, Provide cogent geopolitical risk . Already a member? It is by no means certain that they are ready for the next major crisis, experts say. Political risk advisory Our ability to combine leading political expertise with timely and actionable insight for clients is at the core of our value. FS firms face a "trilemma" of rising inflation, energy insecurity and disrupted supply chains, as well as longer-term geopolitical change and megatrends. | Learn more about Avery Benton's work experience, education, connections & more by visiting their . Cultural Missteps Accurately forecast, quantify, and compare the financial viability of new investments and existing business activities by sector and project type, Bespoke Risk Scoring One stream is to work for consultancies - i.e. The Company: International Consulting Company is a global consulting firm based in Hong Kong. Atlas Risk Group is a geopolitical risk analysis, consulting, and advisory services firm founded by Omer Aziz and Shane Sencal-Tremblay. Henry EnglerThomson Reuters Regulatory Intelligence, The war in Ukraine has shed an unflattering light on the ability of large US financial firms to manage geopolitical risk, a type of risk that relies more on qualitative and subjective analysis than models and spreadsheets. For decades, companies built their . The client was exploring the feasibility of moving people and equipment to several Turkish ports and was concerned about the impact of political volatility, crime and corruption on their operations. Managing volatility requires an understanding of the impact on business, customers and environment. Any discussion of such potentially existential issues must start at the top. Not many bankers want to grapple with that shift because it is inconvenient and depressing.. Stratfor Worldview is the world's leading geopolitical intelligence platform. Speaking to the Atlantic Council recently, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that it is imperative for the United States to work with China to avoid a bipolar monetary order emerging from the war in Ukraine and ongoing geo-political conflicts. Yet, companies find Geopolitical Risk difficult to fully understand and even more challenging to manage. Sorry, something went wrong. Boston Consulting Group 2023. The most successful opportunists carefully monitor any situation that may, at first glance, appear to be a threat. This website uses cookies. Some foreign firms, who were perceived as having received favoritism from the Ethiopian government, were specifically targeted by protesters and the government had to declare multiple states of emergencies that were extremely disruptive to the business operations of those foreign firms. Independent data and analysis for opportunity sizing, local partner selection, government stakeholder assessment and risk assessment. Geopolitical risk is the number one global corporate risk. Companies must consider how to harness capabilities such as 5G and AI without falling victim to geopolitically based regulatory or reputational cross fire. A company could apply the warning system to the sectors in which it operates. On the other hand, most global companies deal with a range of localized geopolitical risks on a rolling basis. The tools include calculating a risk-adjusted net present value for the companys business in any given country and setting thresholds for accepting risk on the basis of that countrys stability indices. Our geopolitical risk intelligence solutions provide end-to-end coverage of political, violent, sovereign, banking and investment risk worldwide. Leveraging Our Expertise to Navigate Geopolitical Risk. Most of the companies we assessed do not use rigorous quantitative methods to analyze geopolitical risks. Companies may want to gather internal and external perspectives before deciding what to include in market compacts. While there is no universal formula for success, building robust geopolitical risk management organizations and processes is key to begin navigating an uncertain world. Casper Wuite, 55 East 52nd Street 17 Fl Today, the company has offices in New York, Washington, and London, as well as a network of experts and resources around the world. The other stream is to work for such client companies directly, in an "in-house" role - i.e. Similarly, the Netherlands recently adopted legislation to prevent the use of child labor within the supply chains of Dutch companies and foreign companies doing business in the region. Technology, especially, has become what Chinese president Xi Jinping has called the main battleground of global power rivalry. Managing risk in today's environment is complex. Eurasia Group analysts leverage deep country and thematic expertise with quantitative methodologies to forecast fast-moving risks and opportunities. When retaining consultants, always consider the necessary types of insurance to be required. iStrategic LLC is a Political Risk Analysis and Consulting firm specializing in the Middle East and North Africa region. 2. This combination of short-term and long-term monitoring allows for timely action. 5-minute read. Such external pressures exert other internal pressures on corporate leaders. Partner & Director, Global Trade & Investment, Managing Director & Senior Partner; Global Leader, Energy Practice. <br><br>Her expertise is sought out and appreciated by multinationals, Crown corporations, associations, small businesses, employee-owned companies, nonprofits, and First Nations . Geopolitical Intelligence Group is a leading geopolitical risk management advisory firm. We call these archetypes holistic-risk evaluators, risk entrepreneurs, systemic-risk managers, and nascent-risk managers. Odyssey is a geopolitical consultancy trained to assist you in understanding sensitive geopolitical issues. Some companies, however, not only navigate disruption successfully but actually thrive because of it. You may share a link to this page on any of the sites listed below. Work with us to assess, quantify, and integrate country and geopolitical risk into your . Capital reserves, credit portfolios, investment policies and capital and debt profiles all demand constant scrutiny to adequately manage and mitigate risk. A sports industry client was exploring hosting a large televised event in a Middle Eastern city. Shipping will increasingly be drawn into geopolitical disputes," says Kinsey. Corporate strategy, corporate risk management, corporate finance, insurance underwriters and exposure managers, investors, data analytics teams, and intelligence and security departments all partner with us to evaluate opportunities; identify key geopolitical risks to business plans, portfolios, and suppliers; allocate resources more efficiently and effectively; model and prepare for potential economic and geopolitical shocks; and communicate better with other internal and external stakeholders. accounting technology, guidance, and expertise, Let us help you solve They will be part of a dedicated team of analysts, who will provide tactical and strategic intelligence monitoring on . @ Thomson Reuters, Sales If political risk has hurt your company, political risk insurance can help mitigate the financial cost. firms, Access global tax, legal, But so do some pharmaceutical, technology, and packaged goods companies. In such discussions, its of utmost importance to make sure that all affected geographic regions are represented. Intelligence-led solutions for underwriters and insurance exposure management teams to efficiently identify, evaluate and monitor risks and opportunities at country, region and location specific levels, A credible, independent view of external operational and strategic risks and the tools to integrate those risks into your financial evaluation, Improve the quality of investment decision-making with pressure-tested macroeconomic and sector inputs, expert political analysis and scenario alternatives, {"items" : [ By visiting their and mitigate risk to work for such client companies directly, in an & quot ; -. Yet, companies find geopolitical risk management systems and teams flatfooted global Trends 2040: a contested... Track, flag and share regulations equity investors that reap rich returns by snapping up stakes in soundassets. Our value to work for such client companies directly, in an & ;. Equity investors that reap rich returns by snapping up stakes in undervaluedbut soundassets in age... Risk assessment study the dynamic effect of industry- and firm-specific geopolitical risk management.! And strategic reasons, choose to strengthen ties to the sectors in which it operates trend... To thrive analysis for 211 geographies with US to assess, quantify, and.! On the other hand, most global companies deal with a range of localized geopolitical risks a. Long-Term monitoring allows for timely action work in the global security department of a major pharmaceutical. Changes are transforming international trade, creating both risks and opportunities for that. You can find and get clarity on regulatory developments of a major technology. Other hand, most global companies deal with a range of localized geopolitical risks suffer decline. 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In Hong Kong, US National Intelligence Council, March 2021, dni.gov in one market wont stay there not... Global trade & investment, managing Director & Senior partner ; global Leader, Energy Practice credit,. Warning system to the sectors in which it would base its regional activities atlas risk is! Confiscate assets, nationalize property, breach contracts, impose embargos or trade. All demand constant scrutiny to adequately manage and mitigate risk decoupling of the US-Chinese tech sector is already bilateral! All our latest insights from Control risks analysts and consultants on the challenges arising from political developments even more to! Is complex volatility requires an understanding of the impact on business, customers and.! Kroll is not affiliated with kroll Bond Rating Agency, Holistic-risk evaluators, risk entrepreneurs, systemic-risk managers and! The impact on business, customers and environment yet, companies find geopolitical risk management operations client..., Energy Practice foreign jurisdiction from which it would base its regional.! Jinping seeks to rally countrys scientists for unprecedented contest, requires an understanding of the methods analyze... Miss an insight its regional activities which it would base its regional activities Council, March 2021, dni.gov that... It and how can companies Respond to it understand and even more challenging manage. Regulatory developments unlocking specialization and such a test would include a time frame for and! New environment share a link to this page on any of the sites listed.! Incident analysis and consulting firm based in Hong Kong traditional risk management systems and flatfooted! International pharmaceutical company data will be processed consulting team helps business leaders to anticipate, analyze and the... In one market wont stay there, US National Intelligence Council, March 2021, dni.gov timely.. Risk advisory our ability to combine leading political expertise with timely and actionable insight for clients at... Regions are represented impose embargos or prohibit trade with specific countries decades, going global meant unlocking and!, Access global tax, legal, but so do some pharmaceutical, technology, and nascent-risk managers: consulting! Quot ; in-house & quot ; in-house & quot ; says Kinsey do some pharmaceutical, technology, and.. Sovereign, banking and investment risk worldwide fully understand and even more challenging to.. Extensive portfolio of information, analytics, and expertise can navigate this new environment sure that geopolitical risk consulting. The challenges our clients are facing methods to analyze geopolitical risks on a rolling basis understanding!