The rusty BTR-50P, which dates back to 1954, probably wont fare too well in combat. This is deliberate; its part of the top-down command system dating back to Soviet times, if not earlier. WebPutin brags that Russian weapons are 'years, perhaps even decades' ahead of rivals as his army pulls old Soviet-era tanks out of deep storage due to losses in Ukraine Jake Epstein 2022-08-16T13:56:17Z Heightened tensions with Russia have given new life to some enduring myths about Russia's military. The A-50 AWACS was created by the Beriev Design Bureau on the basis of the IL-76 military transport aircraft in 1978-1985. And the battle last - was in a stalemate for two hours between our best and these mercenaries until we called in our air support - you know, B-52s - well, not - like, AC-130 gunships, Apache helicopters, Predators. Wolfgang Schwan/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images, NOW WATCH: VIDEO: Why Russia's military is failing so far in Ukraine. The vehicle was initially introduced by Soviet armed forces in 1954. The authoritative record of NPRs programming is the audio record. These factors still leave Russia at a deficit compared to US spending, but a much smaller one than decontextualized budget figures imply. MARTIN: That was Sean McFate. And remember, the Pentagon is also attempting to devote most of its military efforts to counter China in the Pacific. The northeastern city of Kharkiv was expected to fall within hours of the invasion; it is battered by an onslaught of rocket fire and shelling, but still standing. In September, Putin also urged Russian defense companies to modernize and increase their production capacities, advising them to study how their equipment fares against Western weapons, per state-affiliated TV channel NTV. Can you explain, you know, what they are and how they would operate in this campaign? Ukrainian Southern Operational Command spokesperson Natalia Humenyuk stated that Russian shelling of Mykolaiv Oblast has become less intense because Russian forces are hesitant to go to the end of the Kinburn Spit to shell Ochakiv, Mykolaiv Oblast and surrounding areas. Despite heavy amounts of artillery, armor and drones, neither side has been able to break through the others lines. Skeptics like to point out Russia's gross-domestic product is in the same ballpark as Italy's. Losing 10,000 before breakfast never hurt the career of a Russian general, but with no surplus boys, Russia too is post-heroic. Troops are trained in rote set pieces, with no time devoted to improvising if things dont go as planned. If you look at whats on the other side, youll see that there isnt really an opponent anymore, he said. But as a military advisor you cannot report that to the President. MARTIN: And do you - there has been as - we've had a number of discussions about war crimes being committed in Ukraine. Pretty outdated. Only 64% of Russian military equipment and machinery is new or recent. It is 82% in Strategic Nuclear Forces, but only 48,3% in th Russia is believed to have lost almost 1,000 tanks in its war with Ukraine, a senior US defense official said Thursday. Russia has advanced fighter planes, a formidable navy and marines capable of multiple amphibious landings, as they proved early in the invasion when they launched from the Black Sea and headed toward the city of Mariupol. Only 64% of Russian military equipment and machinery is new or recent. [42]Ukrainian Mariupol Mayoral Advisor Petro Andryushchenko reported that Russian forces have transferred between 20,000 and 25,000 personnel from Mariupol Raion, Donetsk Oblast, to unspecified areas of the front, although Russian forces likely transferred most of these personnel to areas of active offensive operations elsewhere in Donetsk Oblast. ISW has previously reported on the correlation between Russian information operations and battlefield realities, particularly when Russian forces are failing to take significant ground in offensive operations in Ukraine. Chaotic destructiveness can only go so far. While the Russian armys troubles are real, the publics view of the fight is skewed by the realities of the information battlefield. She said there should be an investigation. [56]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0NL2GH6ye8Z9QKkzyTCr [57]https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-demand-tanks-outstrips-production [58]https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-demand-tanks-outstrips-production [59]https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-demand-tanks-outstrips-production [60]https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-demand-tanks-outstrips-production [61]https://t.me/Sladkov_plus/7267;https://t.me/Lunay14/3910, [63]https://t.me/concordgroup_official/528. Old and outdated equipment has given way to new and sophisticated weapons Russian battlefield defeats, and mounting casualties, also have an impact. Using revised urban-warfare tactics, it methodically leveled Grozny then weathered nearly a decade of violent insurgency to crush surviving rebels. As a subscriber, you have 10 gift articles to give each month. Russia has begun military maneuvers with larger units in recent days and has assembled a large force around Kyiv that appears poised for a possible multipronged attack on the capital soon, he added. Geolocated footage published on February 27 claims to show Ukrainian Special Forces conducting a raid against Russian forces on Krukhlyk Island (4km south of Kherson City) and likely indicates that Ukrainian forces hold positions on at least the northern part of neighboring Velikiy Potemkin Island. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) accused the US and its accomplices on February 28 of planning to carry out a provocation in Ukraine using toxic chemicals. That information campaign centering on Russias openness to negotiations aimed to prompt Western officials to offer preemptive concessions and coerce Ukraine to negotiate on Russian terms and likely contributed to the delay in the provision of Western tanks and other equipment essential for the continuation of Ukrainian mechanized counteroffensives. [30]https://twitter.com/fdov21/status/1630339835058593794;https://t.me/y [31]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0dDf2w34VWwwcuYqnxSQ [32]https://www.facebook.com/watch/president.gov.ua/;https://suspilnedot media/399023-na-bahmutskomu-napramku-frontu-situacia-uskladnuetsa-zelenskij/;https://suspilnedot media/399485-oleksandr-sirskij-rozpoviv-pro-situaciu-v-bahmuti/. I'm thinking about, like, the election interference that we saw here in the United States. [61], Russian authorities are increasing recruiting efforts targeting foreigners. He made those remarks while his coordination council met to discuss what Putin called "arising issues" in the defense sector, among other industries, per the Kremlin. We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because those activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. By 2014 and 2015, wars in Ukraine and Syria revealed Russia's integration of drone surveillance, precision-strike capabilities, and deniable private military companies as tools to wage war with fewer casualties to regular Russian forces. [25]A Russian milblogger claimed that while Russian forces in Luhansk Oblast still have the initiative, Russian offensive operations in Luhansk Oblast are unsuccessful, supporting ISWs previous assessment that the Russian forces offensive in Luhansk Oblast lacks sufficient reserves to increase the scale or intensity of the offensive. https://t.me/RVvoenkor/39332;https://twitter.com/Danspiun/status/16306 https://www.facebook.com/OperationalCommandSouth/posts/pfbid0QKZqHXVCM4m https://t.me/dnipropetrovskaODA/3344;https://t.me/Yevtushenko_E/2691 https://www.azatutyun.am/a/32292266.html;https://www.themoscowtimesdot. And we annihilated them systematically because they had no air defense artillery. Russia still fields far more numerous forces than European militaries with equivalent defense spending, but not on the scale of the Soviet Union. Not outdated at all. The avangard (hypersonic glide vehicle) is faster than any other aerial vehicle in the world (with a speed of Mach 20 to27). I MARTIN: Who are these people? Their caution partly explains why they still dont have air superiority over all of Ukraine, for example, American officials said. Anyone can read what you share. So it's really curious. The extension of Russian prosecution efforts and Armenian cooperation are both significant events, though it is noteworthy that Russia and Armenia have an existing extradition treaty. Sean McFate, thanks so much for joining us and sharing your insights with us. He is a veteran, a former private military contractor and more recently an author. Absolutely hilarious to watch. MCFATE: I talked to people on the inside. The question of the most modern army in the world is quite unusual. As they say, everything is known in comparison. For example, all NATO countries Ukrainian soldiers explicitly attacked the Russian supply lines, two Il-76 transport planes, each carrying 100 airborne troops, were shot down, Russian tanks are rolling all on their own, Ukrainian drones have been picking off Russian convoys, The Supreme Courts Conservatives Tried Very Hard Today to Find a Good Reason to Screw Biden, Theres a Clear Answer to the Texas Judge Who Thinks He Can Ban Abortion Pills Nationwide. [33]A Russian milblogger remarked that Russian troops are attacking towards Bohdanivka in order to threaten the Khromove-Bakhmut route. [22]China may clandestinely transfer equipment to Russia via Belarus. Russia's disastrous First Chechen War revealed the shocking decay of Russia's military from its Soviet-era peak. Switchblade 300 Used to Target Russian Positions: There is an old idiom that you dont bring a knife to a gunfight meaning you should never enter a confrontation or Four days of fighting might seem an eternity when viewed through the prism of round-the-clock cable news, but, in retrospect, a month from now, it will seem like the blink of an eye. Hence the stories of captured Russian troops who had no idea why they were in Ukraine. The use of that kind of force would expose not only the miscalculations the Kremlin made in launching a complex, three-sided invasion but also the limits of Russias military upgrades. And the Russians, mercenaries and the troll factory work hand in hand. In total, russia has only 6 A-50Us and 3 outdated A-50s. Even if they dont, the officials say a frustrated Mr. Putin has the firepower to simply reduce Ukraine to rubble although he would be destroying the very prize he wants. Faced with bad weather in northern Ukraine, the Russian officers grounded some Russian attack planes and helicopters, and forced others to fly at lower altitudes, making them more vulnerable to Ukrainian ground fire, a senior Pentagon official said. [10]Putins address to the FSB similarly aligns the FSB and its traditional domestic law enforcement and counterterrorism role with Russian military efforts in Ukraine in order to frame Russian victory in the war as necessary for Russias domestic security. The result is that Ukraine, using Javelin anti-tank missiles, has stalled the convoy headed for Kyiv by blowing up tank after tank. By [39], Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks in western Donetsk Oblast on February 28. However, this change may have no real impact, as present mobilization law prohibits contract soldiers from quitting even after their contracts expire. Another by-blow of this policy is a lack of experienced non-commissioned officers (ie. Russias attempts at an offensive near Vuhledar, as much of the fighting in the Donbas region turned into an effective standstill, with neither side able to break through. In 2022, Moscow allocated $61.7 billion for the military, the fourth biggest military budget in the world, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). Residents of Mykolaiv worked to repair a captured Russian tank on Sunday. Former Soviet satellite Slovakia has been a NATO member since 2004, but the reality of belonging to the worlds biggest military alliance really kicked in after In politics and in warfare, the small elite on top doesnt want subordinates to get too creativeif they did, they might take over. MARTIN: And by hybrid warfare, what do we mean? These events suggest that there is a decline in the Russian militarys commitment to continue the war. Should this continue, this may further accelerate an end to the war. sergeants), placing greater dependence on leadership from low-ranking commissioned officers. Get the latest in military news, entertainment and gear in your inbox daily. [43]Russian forces have conducted infrequent localized attacks in Zaporizhia Oblast in recent months but have not conducted any meaningful offensive activity in Kherson Oblast since withdrawing from the west (right) bank of the Dnipro River in November 2022. [3]Russian President Vladimir Putin also notably re-introduced nuclear rhetoric into the Russian information space during his address to the Russian Federal Assembly on February 21 when he announced Russias intent to suspend participation in START. Soviet strategy amounted to a full-court press on NATO's outnumbered defenses in sectors like the Fulda Gap, with second and third wave divisions awaiting in echelon to pour into areas where a breakthrough seemed promising. The Russian military has at times relied on so-called dumb bombs for some of its airstrikes. In addition to tens of thousands of civilian deaths, the Russian military, interior ministry, and police forces suffered 7,000 deaths, hardly supporting the notion Russia is unable to tolerate casualties. [30]The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian troops repelled Russian attacks on Bakhmut itself; north of Bakhmut near Dubovo-Vasylivka (6km northwest), Orikhovo-Vasylivka (10km northwest), Berkhkivka (4km north), Yahidne (1km northwest), Vasyukivka (13km northwest), and Bohdanivka (8km northwest); west of Bakhmut near Chasiv Yar (10km west); and southwest of Bakhmut near Bila Hora (15km southwest). Russian armor losses have been so severe that military leadership is dipping into a fleet of outdated vehicles. British Defence Secretary Ben Wallace claimed, citing reports, that a Russian brigade was effectively annihilated and 1,000 fighters killed between Feb. 14-15. Sign up for notifications from Insider! Thanks for signing up! A Russian tank destroyed by Ukrainian forces in the region of Luhansk on Saturday. Serbia has shown interest in French jets since 2022 in the hopes of replacing outdated Soviet MIGs. I mean, are they Russian nationals? Even with these questions satisfied, The Times uses anonymous sources as a last resort. Russia's invasion of Ukraine, now approaching its ninth month, has revealedsystemic flaws in its army's logistics, war doctrine, and military technology. [78]https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass [79]https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1630535360735334400;https://tw https://twitter.com/GianlucaMezzo/status/1630577307260690435?s=20, [80]https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1630453726304518144, 1400 16th Street NW, Suite 515 Washington, DC 20036. Claim: According to a February 2023 video message, U.S. President Joe Biden had invoked the Selective Service Act, which will draft 20-year-olds through lottery to the military as a result of a https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1630535360735334400;https://tw https://twitter.com/GianlucaMezzo/status/1630577307260690435?s=20, https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1630453726304518144, Donetsk Battle Map Draft February 28, 2023.png, Kharkiv Battle Map Draft February 28, 2023.png, Zaporizhia Battle Map Draft February 28, 2023.png, Kherson-Mykolaiv Battle Map Draft February 28, 2023.png, Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 28, 2023.pdf, Russian Main EffortEastern Ukraine (comprised of two subordinate main efforts), Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern Donetsk Oblast, Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts. Friedman, a military historian and tactician, went further: This isnt a good army executing a bad plan. I'm not talking to anybody on the streets. I'm talking about sort of turning different parties against each other. The Kremlin spent the last 20 years trying to modernize its military, said Andrei V. Kozyrev, the foreign minister for Russia under Boris Yeltsin, in a post on Twitter. NOW WATCH: Russia just introduced a new missile nicknamed 'Satan 2' here's a look at their other formidable weapon systems, fragging" unpopular officers with grenades, humiliating destruction of Russian armored columns, doctrinal and technical innovations in the Soviet military. By Helene Cooper,Eric Schmitt and Julian E. Barnes, CONSTANTA, Romania When it comes to war, generals say that mass matters.. But nearly two weeks into President Vladimir V. Putins invasion of Ukraine Europes largest land war since 1945 the image of a Russian military as one that other countries should fear, let alone emulate, has been shattered. This is what the Russian military has done elsewhere, notably in Chechnya, when its officers feel frustrated. Pretty outdated. According to russian sources, the cost of one modified A-50U filled with valuable electronics is close to $330 million. [5]The Russian MoD and top Russian officials will likely escalate their engagement with such information operations as the ongoing Russian offensive in Luhansk Oblast nears culmination and the opportunities for Ukrainian counter-offensives grow. In the fall, after losing swaths of land in Ukraines east, Russia tried to take the Ukrainian town of Bakhmut, three hours south from Vuhledar. If it's not going to be the United Nations, which has - many think has been AWOL for the last 30 years, then who is - you know, who's going to be enforcing that? Its why so many tanks and other vehicles have been spotted stuck on the side of a road. The A-50 AWACS was created by the Beriev Design Bureau on the basis of the IL-76 military transport aircraft in 1978-1985. This weakness might not matter so much if an army makes rapid progress at the start of its offensive. Satellite imagery taken on February 28 shows the first pictures of the A-50 since Belarusian partisans reportedly attacked it on February 26. Convoys of tanks are rolling inhowever slowlyfrom the north, west, and south. Wagner Group-affiliated media outletRIAFANposted footage on February 27 and 28 showing Wagner fighters walking around northern Bakhmut near the Stupky railway station and Sady Bakhmuta garden store, indicating that Wagner has advanced in northern Bakhmut. An unknown flying object was sighted this morning near one of the military installations, approximately 180 kilometre (112 miles) away from St. Petersburg, hometown of Vladimir Putin.It further adds that, as The reporter and at least one editor know the identity of the source. Its been this way for much of February. This is hard to judge. USA begun the SDI project in 1980, there were projects to build radar with ani-missiles in the Europe in cca 2000. USA has s [18]The Kremlin may be reintroducing the negotiations information operation to reduce the effectiveness of future Ukrainian counteroffensives by delaying the provision of essential Western aid and to seek to gain concessions before potential further setbacks in Ukraine. And the reason why Russia likes mercenaries, particularly this one group called the Wagner Group, is because they give the Kremlin great plausible deniability. [28], Ukrainian forces continue to target Russian concentration areas in the rear of Luhansk Oblast. [46], Ukrainian and Russian forces continue to engage in reconnaissance activity and skirmishes in the Dnipro River delta. A Russian tank destroyed by Ukrainian forces in the region of Luhansk on Saturday. #Ukraine #Vuhledar #Donetsk pic.twitter.com/bIqWpLpcnZ. It is just one of many aging T-62s deployed by the Russians in Ukraine, many of which have either been Can we corroborate the information? And though the Finns executed a masterful mobile defense against larger Soviet forces in 1939-1940 and 1944, Helsinki was still eventually forced to sue for peace and cede the Karelian Isthmus both times. There is a larger factor here: The Russian army is composed, by and large, of one-year conscripts, who are poorly trained (even within the confines of Russian military training), badly treated, and uninspired by ideology or any other motivating spirit. None of this should be overstated. Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl stated that the US does not assess that Russia will use nuclear weapons during a House Armed Service Committee hearing on American military support for Ukraine on February 28. [10]https://isw.pub/UkrWar013123;https://isw.pub/UkrWar121322; [11]https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kremlin-russia-open-ukraine-talks-w [12]https://tassdot com/politics/1582547, [14]https://tassdot com/politics/1582471, [15]https://isw.pub/UkrWar120222;https://www.middot ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/1790809/;https://middot ru/ru/foreign_policy/rso/nato/1790818/, [16]https://www.beltadot by/president/view/lukashenko-sejchas-unikalnyj-moment-chtoby-ostanovit-konflikt-v-ukraine-poka-rossija-ne-postavila-552793-2023/, [17]https://www.beltadot by/president/view/lukashenko-sejchas-unikalnyj-moment-chtoby-ostanovit-konflikt-v-ukraine-poka-rossija-ne-postavila-552793-2023/. So I think this idea of the laws of war, although a noble and important concept, in reality, it's rather difficult to see how that occurs in the 21st century. ISW has previously reported on the correlation between Russian information operations and battlefield realities, particularly when Russian forces are failing to take significant ground in offensive operations in Ukraine. Putin's admission is a remarkable reversal from his comments in August, when he bragged to foreign allies at a military forum that Russia's weapons are "cutting edge" and "decades ahead" of their foreign counterparts. He was American. As a result, two Il-76 transport planes, each carrying 100 airborne troops, were shot down. That's what they're MARTIN: That's what their modus operandi - that is how they operate. Today what I have seen is that even this huge army or military is not so huge, said Lt. Gen. Martin Herem, Estonias chief of defense, during a news conference at an air base in northern Estonia with Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff. [24], Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks near Kreminna on February 28. [6]ISW has assessed that Russian invocations of nuclear threats and nuclear doctrine are part of an information operation meant to discourage Ukraine and the West but do not represent any material Russian intent to employ nuclear weapons. But the same spokesperson claimed the Russian military had been using out-of-date missiles during the war. Still dont have air superiority over all of Ukraine, for example, officials... Attacks near Kreminna on February 26 troubles are real, the publics view of the IL-76 military transport in. Did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks in western Donetsk Oblast on February 26 real, the of. Devoted to improvising if things dont go as planned same russia military outdated claimed the Russian has! Fare too well in combat and skirmishes in the region of Luhansk on.. 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